Jump to content

MFoland

Owner and CEO of USA Weather
  • Content Count

    7,177
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    8

Everything posted by MFoland

  1. This never formed 🙂 @A. Schronce was right!! He's the king at Tropical Weather!
  2. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. Read more View SPC Outlook
  3. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. Read more View SPC Outlook
  4. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The wildfire-growth potential across portions of the southern High Plains still appears too brief and localized for the addition of an elevated area at this time. As such, the forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic pattern will remain dynamic, with a rapidly amplifying trough expected to dive southward along the West Coast throughout the forecast period. That trough will force a mid-level cutoff low to open and eject across northwestern Mexico while also encouraging surface cyclogenesis across the western Great Basin. Lee troughing will also exist across the High Plains, while a surface anticyclone extends across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The western U.S. systems will foster breezy conditions and locally elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah and also along the Colorado Front Range southward to central New Mexico. The brief, localized nature of these conditions and lack of widespread cured fuels will limit the spatial extent of any fire weather risk, however. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  5. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The wildfire-growth potential across portions of the southern High Plains still appears too brief and localized for the addition of an elevated area at this time. As such, the forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic pattern will remain dynamic, with a rapidly amplifying trough expected to dive southward along the West Coast throughout the forecast period. That trough will force a mid-level cutoff low to open and eject across northwestern Mexico while also encouraging surface cyclogenesis across the western Great Basin. Lee troughing will also exist across the High Plains, while a surface anticyclone extends across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The western U.S. systems will foster breezy conditions and locally elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah and also along the Colorado Front Range southward to central New Mexico. The brief, localized nature of these conditions and lack of widespread cured fuels will limit the spatial extent of any fire weather risk, however. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  6. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms could produce small hail. ...Southern AZ... A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday morning will weaken as it is shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves south-southeast into central/southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture will support a threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower CO River Valley and much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern UT and much of central and western NM by Wednesday morning. Recent suite of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period over southern AZ. A few stronger storms are possible but would likely be confined to southeast AZ where the greatest combination of shear/instability are forecast. Will defer a potential low-severe highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this possible scenario. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  7. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms could produce small hail. ...Southern AZ... A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday morning will weaken as it is shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves south-southeast into central/southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture will support a threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower CO River Valley and much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern UT and much of central and western NM by Wednesday morning. Recent suite of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period over southern AZ. A few stronger storms are possible but would likely be confined to southeast AZ where the greatest combination of shear/instability are forecast. Will defer a potential low-severe highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this possible scenario. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  8. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms could produce small hail. ...Southern AZ... A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday morning will weaken as it is shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves south-southeast into central/southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture will support a threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower CO River Valley and much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern UT and much of central and western NM by Wednesday morning. Recent suite of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period over southern AZ. A few stronger storms are possible but would likely be confined to southeast AZ where the greatest combination of shear/instability are forecast. Will defer a potential low-severe highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this possible scenario. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  9. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms could produce small hail. ...Southern AZ... A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday morning will weaken as it is shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves south-southeast into central/southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture will support a threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower CO River Valley and much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern UT and much of central and western NM by Wednesday morning. Recent suite of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period over southern AZ. A few stronger storms are possible but would likely be confined to southeast AZ where the greatest combination of shear/instability are forecast. Will defer a potential low-severe highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this possible scenario. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Smith.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  10. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A progressive, amplified pattern will continue across the Lower 48 today. Across the west, a shortwave trough will migrate eastward and induce surface cyclogenesis across the western Great Basin. This surface low will gradually weaken the offshore pressure gradient across California and vicinity. Farther east, windy and dry conditions will develop across portions of Nebraska and Kansas during the afternoon, though fuels in these areas do not appear to support a fire threat on a widespread basis. ...Southern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected in the morning, although aforementioned synoptic conditions will contribute to a weakening of the surface pressure gradient and calmer surface winds by midday. Surface RH values will remain fairly low however, and fall into the 3-10% range during the afternoon especially away from coastal areas. Fuels continue to remain dry and support fire spread. For these reasons, an elevated fire delineation remains in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  11. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A progressive, amplified pattern will continue across the Lower 48 today. Across the west, a shortwave trough will migrate eastward and induce surface cyclogenesis across the western Great Basin. This surface low will gradually weaken the offshore pressure gradient across California and vicinity. Farther east, windy and dry conditions will develop across portions of Nebraska and Kansas during the afternoon, though fuels in these areas do not appear to support a fire threat on a widespread basis. ...Southern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected in the morning, although aforementioned synoptic conditions will contribute to a weakening of the surface pressure gradient and calmer surface winds by midday. Surface RH values will remain fairly low however, and fall into the 3-10% range during the afternoon especially away from coastal areas. Fuels continue to remain dry and support fire spread. For these reasons, an elevated fire delineation remains in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  12. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  13. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  14. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  15. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected. Water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough about 400nm off the coast of WA/OR. This feature will approach the Pacific Northwest coast later today, with the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after dark. Weak instability should minimize the risk of severe storms. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  16. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific Northwest around 06Z. ...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after 00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates -- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent. Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile. Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg, and lightning flashes should be isolated. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  17. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific Northwest around 06Z. ...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after 00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates -- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent. Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile. Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg, and lightning flashes should be isolated. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  18. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific Northwest around 06Z. ...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after 00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates -- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent. Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile. Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg, and lightning flashes should be isolated. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  19. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific Northwest around 06Z. ...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after 00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates -- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent. Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile. Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg, and lightning flashes should be isolated. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  20. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern through the period will be rather progressive, except for a persistent, cut-off low that will remain west of the Baja spur through the period. Shortwave troughs moving over the upper Mississippi Valley, upper Great Lakes and off the southern Atlantic Coast will cross over a low-level air mass too dry and stable for thunderstorms, behind a large cyclone located over the western Atlantic. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery well west of WA/OR near 137W -- is expected to move onshore of the coastal Pacific Northwest around 06Z. ...Pacific Northwest... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Northwest and Cascades area -- mainly after 00Z. As the Pacific shortwave trough approaches, related large-scale lift/DCVA and cooling aloft will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates -- initially over the marine layer near the coast, then inland over the Cascades, atop generally weaker theta-e with eastward extent. Time series of forecast soundings suggest substantial destabilization immediately preceding the trough in the 400-600-mb layer, which also corresponds to thermal profiles colder than -20 C and suitable for lightning generation once buoyancy can extend into that profile. Even with max lapse rates, MUCAPE should remain under about 250 J/kg, and lightning flashes should be isolated. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/18/2019 Read more View SPC Outlook
  21. Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low and associated positive-tilt trough will move from the Four Corners area on Thu/D4 toward the southern High Plains, with an intense speed max aloft nosing into west TX and OK by Fri/D5 morning. At the surface, high pressure will settle southward into the northern and central Plains, with a cold front roughly from MAF to OKC to STL by late afternoon Thur/D4. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place south of the cold front, leading to sufficient instability for scattered storms. Most likely, the cold front will continue moving south which will undercut developing storms, beneath near-parallel winds aloft. Thus, while thunderstorms may be widespread from TX into OK and AR, severe potential will be limited. On Fri/D5, the upper wave will continue east across the central Plains toward the middle and lower MS Valley, providing strong southwesterlies aloft. While model differences exist regarding speed of the upper trough, it appears more likely that a low/wave will form along the aforementioned cold front, possibly focusing storms from the Sabine River to the lower MS Valley. Shear will conditionally support severe storms, but instability will be a limiting factor, and, predictability is low. From Sat/D6 and beyond, predictability with the large-scale pattern becomes quite low, but so too appears severe potential through Mon/D8. Read more View SPC Outlook
  22. Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low and associated positive-tilt trough will move from the Four Corners area on Thu/D4 toward the southern High Plains, with an intense speed max aloft nosing into west TX and OK by Fri/D5 morning. At the surface, high pressure will settle southward into the northern and central Plains, with a cold front roughly from MAF to OKC to STL by late afternoon Thur/D4. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place south of the cold front, leading to sufficient instability for scattered storms. Most likely, the cold front will continue moving south which will undercut developing storms, beneath near-parallel winds aloft. Thus, while thunderstorms may be widespread from TX into OK and AR, severe potential will be limited. On Fri/D5, the upper wave will continue east across the central Plains toward the middle and lower MS Valley, providing strong southwesterlies aloft. While model differences exist regarding speed of the upper trough, it appears more likely that a low/wave will form along the aforementioned cold front, possibly focusing storms from the Sabine River to the lower MS Valley. Shear will conditionally support severe storms, but instability will be a limiting factor, and, predictability is low. From Sat/D6 and beyond, predictability with the large-scale pattern becomes quite low, but so too appears severe potential through Mon/D8. Read more View SPC Outlook
  23. Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low and associated positive-tilt trough will move from the Four Corners area on Thu/D4 toward the southern High Plains, with an intense speed max aloft nosing into west TX and OK by Fri/D5 morning. At the surface, high pressure will settle southward into the northern and central Plains, with a cold front roughly from MAF to OKC to STL by late afternoon Thur/D4. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place south of the cold front, leading to sufficient instability for scattered storms. Most likely, the cold front will continue moving south which will undercut developing storms, beneath near-parallel winds aloft. Thus, while thunderstorms may be widespread from TX into OK and AR, severe potential will be limited. On Fri/D5, the upper wave will continue east across the central Plains toward the middle and lower MS Valley, providing strong southwesterlies aloft. While model differences exist regarding speed of the upper trough, it appears more likely that a low/wave will form along the aforementioned cold front, possibly focusing storms from the Sabine River to the lower MS Valley. Shear will conditionally support severe storms, but instability will be a limiting factor, and, predictability is low. From Sat/D6 and beyond, predictability with the large-scale pattern becomes quite low, but so too appears severe potential through Mon/D8. Read more View SPC Outlook
  24. Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low and associated positive-tilt trough will move from the Four Corners area on Thu/D4 toward the southern High Plains, with an intense speed max aloft nosing into west TX and OK by Fri/D5 morning. At the surface, high pressure will settle southward into the northern and central Plains, with a cold front roughly from MAF to OKC to STL by late afternoon Thur/D4. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place south of the cold front, leading to sufficient instability for scattered storms. Most likely, the cold front will continue moving south which will undercut developing storms, beneath near-parallel winds aloft. Thus, while thunderstorms may be widespread from TX into OK and AR, severe potential will be limited. On Fri/D5, the upper wave will continue east across the central Plains toward the middle and lower MS Valley, providing strong southwesterlies aloft. While model differences exist regarding speed of the upper trough, it appears more likely that a low/wave will form along the aforementioned cold front, possibly focusing storms from the Sabine River to the lower MS Valley. Shear will conditionally support severe storms, but instability will be a limiting factor, and, predictability is low. From Sat/D6 and beyond, predictability with the large-scale pattern becomes quite low, but so too appears severe potential through Mon/D8. Read more View SPC Outlook
  25. Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low and associated positive-tilt trough will move from the Four Corners area on Thu/D4 toward the southern High Plains, with an intense speed max aloft nosing into west TX and OK by Fri/D5 morning. At the surface, high pressure will settle southward into the northern and central Plains, with a cold front roughly from MAF to OKC to STL by late afternoon Thur/D4. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place south of the cold front, leading to sufficient instability for scattered storms. Most likely, the cold front will continue moving south which will undercut developing storms, beneath near-parallel winds aloft. Thus, while thunderstorms may be widespread from TX into OK and AR, severe potential will be limited. On Fri/D5, the upper wave will continue east across the central Plains toward the middle and lower MS Valley, providing strong southwesterlies aloft. While model differences exist regarding speed of the upper trough, it appears more likely that a low/wave will form along the aforementioned cold front, possibly focusing storms from the Sabine River to the lower MS Valley. Shear will conditionally support severe storms, but instability will be a limiting factor, and, predictability is low. From Sat/D6 and beyond, predictability with the large-scale pattern becomes quite low, but so too appears severe potential through Mon/D8. Read more View SPC Outlook
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use Privacy Policy