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A. Schronce

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A. Schronce last won the day on September 24

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About A. Schronce

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  1. Personally, I am ready for Winter again. What about you guys?
  2. Thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching Cold Front will continue to impact the Western part of the State over the next few days. Although the threat for Severe Weather across the Western Carolina's looks minimal an isolated Severe Storm can't be fully ruled out. The biggest concern with these storms will be the heavy rainfall they produce. Not only will this lead to localized area's of flash flooding, but gusty winds with these storms on top of saturated soils could lead to downed trees around the area. Across the East, a disturbance located along the Southeast Coastline will continue to advance slowly toward the NE/NNE. As this happens, moisture from this disturbance will move into the eastern part of the state. A few Isolated Severe Thunderstorms aren't out of the question here either, but heavy torrential rainfall will be the primary concern.
  3. Quick Update... Still, no organization with this system, and, as expected condition remain unconducive for any development of this system as it moves slowly toward the NE/NNE over the next several days and merges with the frontal boundary that is currently pushing through the Mississippi River Valley. I have still seen one source out there giving this system a 20%/30% chance for development over the next five days, but going to have to personally refute this. Even the NHC is stating now that conditions appear unfavorable for any further development. The image provided below shows the area in which the system is moving and the low-shear environment around the High Pressure that is back toward Bermuda. As the frontal boundary continues to advance Eastward over the next couple days and this system slowly tracks up the East Coast Seaboard, shear is going to remain unfavorable for development. Don't see the hype with this system, maybe cause it's early and the Hurricane Season hasn't started or something, I don't know. I am going to lock this thread. Given the very odd/rare chance that something may try to spin up, then it can be re-opened, but do believe everyone with the Organization has a better chance of a bird crapping on their head at the same time, before this system becomes Tropical or even Subtropical for that matter.
  4. System off the East Coast of Florida continues to be disorganized as expected. Again, did not buy into anything coming of this system even when the NHC went with the 20% chance of slow development. Shear across this region remains to strong and although there is quite a bit of convection associated with this disturbance, the likelihood of anything tropical in nature with it still remains non-existent. The frontal boundary that is coming through the Central part of the U.S. will begin to absorb this disturbance over the next couple of days. I have seen a website, that I am unfamiliar with that first jumped the gun with this system giving it hype, that jumped on board with development even before the NHC did, and even then I find myself wondering how board you have to be. For the NHC to jump on board with this, knowing environmental conditions across this region weren't and aren't going to be conducive for this disturbance to become anything other than a heavy rain-maker, just baffles me. Don't get me wrong, I respect the NHC and the Forecasters there, but this just seemed a little far fetched, though I guess it did make a good practice run for them. 😉
  5. Right, and not many people are going to take off work or take their kids out of school to attend this.
  6. Isolated Thunderstorms have developed across Western North Carolina this afternoon. None of these storms at the time have become severe in nature, but they are producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. Even small hail cannot be ruled out with a few of these storms as they slowly push toward the NNE/NE. As these storms continue to track across the area, the potential is there for isolated Flash Flooding so person(s) out and about should monitor for flooded roadways. Remember if you come across a flooded roadway, keep in mind the NWS's motto, "Turn Around, Don't Drown". It is never worth risking your life trying to make it through a flooded roadway. Just simply turn around, take the extra time and go around the flooded area.
  7. Given the interaction with the Bahamas, the disturbance off the southeast coast is still poorly organized this morning. Wind shear across this area this morning is anywhere from 25 kts to 40 kts and looks to remain this way for the next couple of days. Still, believe the NHC has jumped the gun with this system. Although, if this was later into the Season, the system coming off of western Africa would be something to watch for sure lol. Who knows, maybe this is a precursor of what is to come this season.
  8. The NHC has apparently finally stepped on board with this, giving it a 20% chance for slow development once it starts to turn away from the Eastern Seaboard. Do not buy into this as shear across this region is going to remain unfavorable for this to happen. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Methinks that NHC and stuff just wants to get to work.
  9. The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is only (1) one month away, so are you prepared? If not, then now is the time to start getting prepared and Tropical Systems can be a force of destruction. Never wait until the last minute to put a plan in place, as those final moments can mean the difference between life and death. Have a plan to safeguard your home and have a plan to get you and your family out safely. Know your evacuation routes and the essentials that you will need in case you have to evacuate.
  10. If you are posting "news" regarding an article that you did not write yourself, and, do not have the right to post/redistribute the content, then you may still post, but you will need to post a description including your own thoughts regarding the news article. You will also need to post the "URL" to the article itself. Do not try to claim rights to the content that does not belong to you. Do not post images, videos, text, etc that don't belong to you unless you have written permission from the said copyright owner. Do not post unrelated news here. If the article isn't in some way related to Weather, then do NOT post it. If you have a question regarding what you can or cannot post in this section, then please contact the Club Owner or a Club Lead.
  11. What is your favorite time of the year? Are you for the heat or are you for the cold?
  12. If posting a "Storm Report" please refer to this thread for how to post your report. It is important to note, however, that all post in this section will be reviewed closely and any false reports will be removed from the Club and you may be potentially removed as well. Thread - Posting Storm Reports
  13. Hurricane Awareness Tour Stop # 4 - May 09, 2019 Charlotte, North Carolina Are you interested in hurricanes? Have you ever wanted to meet a hurricane hunter or hurricane specialists? Want to take a tour of a hurricane hunter aircraft? Mark your calendars! On Thursday, May 9, 2019, Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will be stopping in Charlotte, NC, as one of the five locations participating in the 2019 Hurricane Awareness Tour (HAT) along the U.S. East Coast. The purpose of this tour is to raise awareness of the impacts from tropical cyclone threats and the dangers of not having a personal hurricane plan in place. Ken Graham, the director of the National Hurricane Center, along with hurricane specialists Dr. Michael Brennan and Daniel Brown, and mission specialist Warren Madden will be in attendance. USAF hurricane hunter crew members and NOAA aircraft crew members will be there as well to educate residents of vulnerable communities about hurricane preparedness and will be available for interviews, too. Other attending organizations will be local emergency management, non-profit organizations such as the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH), American Red Cross, and personnel from the NOAA National Weather Service forecast office in Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, Columbia, SC, and Raleigh, NC. Event Information When: Thursday, May 09, 2019 Where: Charlotte Douglas International Airport Open to the Public: 2:00 - 5:00 PM The WC-130J and the NOAA WP-3D Orion Aircraft will be in attendance.
  14. The NAM does have a cut-off low in the latest run, but it is well south of Cuba away from the main area of convection and surface trough. Very doubtful that anything other than sporadic showers comes from this system. High Pressure to the North and the Cold Front across the Central part of the Country will also hinder an formation of any potential low.
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