Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Jeremy Camp

Atlantic Ocean

Recommended Posts

An area in the Atlantic needs to be monitored for potential development over the next 72 hours.  I do not foresee it being a threat to land at this time. 

Atlantic.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Jeremy Camp No tropical formation is expected. High Pressure is expected to dominate, and the models do not even suggest that tropical development is expected. Refer to the National Hurricane Center!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM does have a cut-off low in the latest run, but it is well south of Cuba away from the main area of convection and surface trough. Very doubtful that anything other than sporadic showers comes from this system. High Pressure to the North and the Cold Front across the Central part of the Country will also hinder an formation of any potential low. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

000 ABNT20 KNHC 011324 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little development is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula. Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

The NHC has apparently finally stepped on board with this, giving it a 20% chance for slow development once it starts to turn away from the Eastern Seaboard. Do not buy into this as shear across this region is going to remain unfavorable for this to happen. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Methinks that NHC and stuff just wants to get to work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, A. Schronce said:

The NHC has apparently finally stepped on board with this, giving it a 20% chance for slow development once it starts to turn away from the Eastern Seaboard. Do not buy into this as shear across this region is going to remain unfavorable for this to happen. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Methinks that NHC and stuff just wants to get to work.

Agree with you Avery, conditions just don't look favorable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the interaction with the Bahamas, the disturbance off the southeast coast is still poorly organized this morning. Wind shear across this area this morning is anywhere from 25 kts to 40 kts and looks to remain this way for the next couple of days. Still, believe the NHC has jumped the gun with this system. 

20191221100_GOES16-ABI-taw-14-900x540.jpg

Although, if this was later into the Season, the system coming off of western Africa would be something to watch for sure lol. Who knows, maybe this is a precursor of what is to come this season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

System off the East Coast of Florida continues to be disorganized as expected.  Again, did not buy into anything coming of this system even when the NHC went with the 20% chance of slow development. Shear across this region remains to strong and although there is quite a bit of convection associated with this disturbance, the likelihood of anything tropical in nature with it still remains non-existent. 

The frontal boundary that is coming through the Central part of the U.S. will begin to absorb this disturbance over the next couple of days. I have seen a website, that I am unfamiliar with that first jumped the gun with this system giving it hype, that jumped on board with development even before the NHC did, and even then I find myself wondering how board you have to be. For the NHC to jump on board with this, knowing environmental conditions across this region weren't and aren't going to be conducive for this disturbance to become anything other than a heavy rain-maker, just baffles me. Don't get me wrong, I respect the NHC and the Forecasters there, but this just seemed a little far fetched, though I guess it did make a good practice run for them. 😉

20191230211_GOES16-ABI-se-07-1200x1200.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, A. Schronce said:

System off the East Coast of Florida continues to be disorganized as expected.  Again, did not buy into anything coming of this system even when the NHC went with the 20% chance of slow development. Shear across this region remains to strong and although there is quite a bit of convection associated with this disturbance, the likelihood of anything tropical in nature with it still remains non-existent. 

The frontal boundary that is coming through the Central part of the U.S. will begin to absorb this disturbance over the next couple of days. I have seen a website, that I am unfamiliar with that first jumped the gun with this system giving it hype, that jumped on board with development even before the NHC did, and even then I find myself wondering how board you have to be. For the NHC to jump on board with this, knowing environmental conditions across this region weren't and aren't going to be conducive for this disturbance to become anything other than a heavy rain-maker, just baffles me. Don't get me wrong, I respect the NHC and the Forecasters there, but this just seemed a little far fetched, though I guess it did make a good practice run for them. 😉

20191230211_GOES16-ABI-se-07-1200x1200.jpg

Yeah, I didn't even agree with NHC.. They dropped it to 10%, and I suspect by the next update, it should be dropped. We'll see what happens! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick Update...

Still, no organization with this system, and, as expected condition remain unconducive for any development of this system as it moves slowly toward the NE/NNE over the next several days and merges with the frontal boundary that is currently pushing through the Mississippi River Valley. I have still seen one source out there giving this system a 20%/30% chance for development over the next five days, but going to have to personally refute this. Even the NHC is stating now that conditions appear unfavorable for any further development. 

The image provided below shows the area in which the system is moving and the low-shear environment around the High Pressure that is back toward Bermuda. As the frontal boundary continues to advance Eastward over the next couple days and this system slowly tracks up the East Coast Seaboard, shear is going to remain unfavorable for development. Don't see the hype with this system, maybe cause it's early and the Hurricane Season hasn't started or something, I don't know. 

I am going to lock this thread. Given the very odd/rare chance that something may try to spin up, then it can be re-opened, but do believe everyone with the Organization has a better chance of a bird crapping on their head at the same time, before this system becomes Tropical or even Subtropical for that matter.

Disturbance1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use Privacy Policy