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NOAA-SPC Oct 9, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2019

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and
southern Plains Thursday as a cold front moves through the region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over WY and associated trough extending south
through the Four Corners are expected to move east into the Great
Plains during the period.  A belt of strong cyclonically curved
500mb flow will overspread OK northward into the lower MO Valley and
Upper Midwest.  A surface cyclone initially over central KS will
develop rapidly north-northeastward before occluding over northern
MN early Friday morning.  An attendant cold front will sweep
southeast and eastward across parts of the Midwest and central and
southern Plains states.  

...Central/Southern Plains...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday morning
over the western part of the Ozark Plateau north and northeast into
the lower MO Valley as a result of warm air advection.  In wake of
this activity, heating over central and southern OK coupled with
increasing low-level moisture will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by
early to mid afternoon.  Forecast soundings show a wind profile
supporting organized storm structures, including the possibility for
supercells.  Model guidance currently indicates storm development
will occur along the front with the deep shear vector oriented
primarily parallel to the southeastward-moving boundary.  As a
result, outflow from storms will have a tendency to temporally limit
quasi-discrete storm structures as storms quickly grow upscale. 
Nonetheless, it seems hail/wind will occur with the stronger storms
within the area bounded by the Slight Risk from southeast KS and far
southwest MO southward through central and eastern OK.  A tornado or
two is possible over east-central into northeast OK where the
maximizing of shear/buoyancy is forecast.  

...Mid MO Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period across the region, supported by a moist pre-frontal air
mass and a strong low-level jet. Elevated instability and modest
vertical shear may support a few updrafts strong enough to produce
marginally severe hail. 

Persistent moisture advection is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints
into the region. Some upper 60s dewpoints are possible as far north
as northwest MO.  Some backing of the surface winds is possible near
this surface low thereby enlarging hodographs.  However, antecedent
precipitation and widespread cloud cover will limit diurnal heating
and 0-2km lapse rates.  It is possible a narrow corridor of
instability develops immediately ahead/southeast of the surface low
with a conditional surface-based severe risk.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Smith.. 10/09/2019

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