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NOAA-SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE
AND PENINSULAR RANGES AND VICINITY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND
PENINSULAR RANGES AND VICINITY...

Upgraded much of the ongoing critical area to extremely critical for
very windy and dry conditions persisting into Friday. The latest
forecast guidance suggests the pressure gradient will peak around 12
to 15Z in the morning. In addition, the pressure gradient will shift
orientation slightly in such a way as to increase the winds in the
higher terrain of Riverside and San Diego counties. More than 24
hours of strong offshore flow will continue to dry the air mass with
widespread less than 5 percent relative humidity anticipated by
Friday morning across the entire region. Given the expected
persistence of extremely critical conditions, have continued the
extremely critical area from Day 1 into Day 2 and have expanded it
southward to account for the windier conditions in Riverside and San
Diego counties on Friday.

Also expanded the critical area into San Luis Obispo county to
account for the drying air mass and winds in the 25 to 35 mph range
on Friday.

..Bentley.. 10/10/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/

...Synopsis...
A large, strong upper-level trough will continue moving eastward
over the central CONUS with weak shortwave ridging/split flow
developing aloft over the western CONUS on Friday. Surface high
pressure will remain over the interior western CONUS and centered
over the Rockies, but will begin to weaken. As such, the surface
pressure gradient will begin to relax between the Great Basin and
the southern California coast later in the period, but strong
offshore/downslope winds are still expected across southern
California.

...southern California...
Critical conditions are expected to continue across the Transverse
and Peninsular Ranges of southern California through Friday
afternoon. Northeast-east sustained winds of 15-30 mph with gusts of
35-60 mph and RH values of 5-15% will continue from the morning into
the evening across the area. Locally extremely critical conditions
are likely in the higher terrain, especially Friday morning into
early Friday afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will begin to
relax on Friday afternoon/evening and most of the upper-level
support will have moved downstream by then. However, elevated to
critical conditions will linger into Friday night over the higher
terrain.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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