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MD 2064 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...EASTERN OK...NORTHWESTERN AR...FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS...AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO
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Mesoscale Discussion 2064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Areas affected...Portions of north TX...eastern OK...northwestern
AR...far southeastern KS...and western/southern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

Valid 102042Z - 102145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat
continues this afternoon across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been generally slow to intensify this
afternoon across central/eastern OK along and ahead of a cold front.
The environment across this region remains favorable for storm
organization, with around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of
effective bulk shear. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging
winds should remain the primary threats through the rest of the
afternoon. A brief tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given the
presence of some low-level shear. This threat would mainly exist
with any storm that can remain ahead of the front in eastern OK and
far western AR, such as one currently moving from eastern Haskell
into northern Le Flore County in eastern OK. Through early evening,
low-level winds will slowly diminish as a southerly low-level jet
shifts northward into the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest. The loss
of daytime heating and the undercutting nature of the front should
also result in a gradual weakening trend to ongoing storms as they
eventually move eastward out of the corridor of greatest
instability.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33599799 36159538 38239488 38439374 38159248 37519216
            35379371 34519509 33609637 33599799 

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