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NOAA-SPC MD 2065

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MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
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Mesoscale Discussion 2065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Areas affected...much of north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102216Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this evening along the cold
front. Isolated severe hail or wind is possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery currently shows a capped CU field over
much of northern TX ahead of the cold front which is slowly moving
south across northwest TX. However, latest imagery shows deeper
towers near the front where temperatures are above 90 F. Ample
moisture with PW values of 1.50-1.75" exists along I-35, with MLCAPE
averaging close to 2000 J/kg within the instability axis.

While capping is inhibiting storms currently, the front will likely
become sufficient to break the cap this evening. East-west oriented
deep-layer shear appears to be at a sufficient angle to the boundary
to allow for a few storms to remain near the front as it progresses
east/southeast. Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2, as well as elongating
hodographs with height suggest an isolated supercell is possible
with hail the primary threat. Otherwise, storms may produce locally
strong to severe wind gusts. If it becomes clear storm coverage will
become sufficient, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31079798 31089806 31489889 31799915 32149900 32629874
            33099794 33509740 33919579 33859546 33449532 32319566
            31519617 30969685 30909731 31079798 

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