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NOAA-SPC Nov 18, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New
Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms
could produce small hail.

...Southern AZ...
A mid-level low west of Baja CA Tuesday morning will weaken as it is
shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a
mid-level trough over northern CA/OR moves south-southeast into
central/southern CA.  Increasing midlevel moisture will support a
threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower CO River Valley and
much of AZ Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern UT and
much of central and western NM by Wednesday morning.  Recent suite
of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind
profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period
over southern AZ.  A few stronger storms are possible but would
likely be confined to southeast AZ where the greatest combination of
shear/instability are forecast.  Will defer a potential low-severe
highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this
possible scenario.

Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Smith.. 11/18/2019

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