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It's beginning to look a lot like...Wait...What....Snow???

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  • USA Weather Inc, Director of Meteorology

This one is going to be worth watching. 

The latest 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF are starting to come into agreement on a potential Winter Storm impacting portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Region this coming weekend. The GFS has been hinting at this for the past several runs, as well as the EURO, but the GFS has been more bullish in terms of higher snowfall. The previous ECMWF have hinted at this up until 12z but totals were way down. Now the ECMWF is becoming more in line with the the GFS run. 

I live just outside of the Hickory area in Western North Carolina, the 12z GFS has me picking up between 14 to 16 inches, the 12z ECMWF which has now stepped on board significantly has been picking up between 9 to 12 inches. It is looking more and more likely that the CAD will set up along the Eastern Slopes of the Appalachian Mountains behind a weak frontal boundary that will move through on Friday, ushering cold air into the region. 

Meanwhile, another, stronger area of low pressure is forecast to move from west/east and track near or along the I-85 corridor, while moisture surges into the Southeast and Middle Atlantic from the Gulf of Mexico. Another thing that will need to be watched is the potential for Freezing Rain as the CAD begins to weaken Sunday Evening and WAA begins to creep in. This will likely transition any left over moisture to liquid while surface temperatures remain at or below freezing. 

Will be tracking and monitoring this potential system closes and will. be monitoring the latest model trends. I will continue to post updates via this thread throughout the week. 



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